1.10 Phase Relationships, Baseline Plan, Forecasts, and Risk/Recovery Planning

AACE Planning and Scheduling Professional PSP

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1 Chapter 0: Introduction & AACE PSP Exam Structure

0.1 Current AACE PSP Exam, Eligibility, and Certification Facts 0.2 Planning and Scheduling Professional Roles and Competencies 0.3 Cost Engineering and Scheduling Terminology per RP 10S-90

2 Chapter 1: Scope Definition & Planning Fundamentals

1.1 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Architecture & RP 33R-15 1.2 Organization & Resource Breakdown Structures (OBS, RBS, RAM) 1.3 Project Planning and Activity-Logic Development 1.4 Contract Requirements and Delivery Constraints 1.5 Stakeholder Identification, Needs, and Plan Review 1.6 Constructability Methods and Value Engineering 1.7 Resource Identification and Project Variables 1.8 Scope, Goals, Project Plan, and Phase Definition 1.9 Cost Breakdown Structure and Cost Estimate Development 1.10 Phase Relationships, Baseline Plan, Forecasts, and Risk/Recovery Planning

3 Chapter 2: Critical Path Method Mechanics & Network Logic

2.1 Activity Definition and Logic Relationships 2.2 Activity Durations, Productivity, and Work Calendars 2.3 Forward and Backward Pass Mathematical Mechanics 2.4 Float Calculations and Critical-Path Identification

4 Chapter 3: Advanced Network Techniques & Schedule Constraints

3.1 Schedule Constraints and Their Impact on Dates and Float 3.2 Advanced Logic Modeling: Ladders and Fragnets 3.3 Schedule Levels of Detail and Schedule Basis Documentation 3.4 Schedule Scope and Schedule Specification 3.5 Breakdown-Structure Relationships and the Cost Estimate Model 3.6 Stakeholder Feedback and Types of Schedules 3.7 Activities, Milestones, Schedule Quality, and Basis Documentation

5 Chapter 4: Resource Management & Leveling

4.1 Resource Planning, Allocation, and Histograms 4.2 Resource Leveling vs. Resource Smoothing 4.3 Cumulative Resource S-Curves & Productivity Tracking

6 Chapter 5: Baseline Management & Schedule Updating

5.1 Baseline Establishment, Forecasts, and Controlled Revision 5.2 Progress Measurement and Data Date Mechanics 5.3 Out-of-Sequence Logic: Progress Override vs. Retained Logic 5.4 Schedule Update Review and Quality Verification per RP 53R-06 5.5 Cost/Resource Management, Schedule Change, and Feedback 5.6 Acceleration and Recovery Scheduling per RP 54R-07 5.7 Control Schedules, Variance Analysis, Forecasts, and Management Summaries

7 Chapter 6: Schedule Risk Analysis & Monte Carlo Simulation

6.1 Schedule Risk Principles, Risk Drivers, and Three-Point Estimates 6.2 Monte Carlo Simulation, Criticality, Correlation, and Merge Effects 6.3 Risk Outputs, Confidence Dates, Sensitivity, and Contingency

8 Chapter 7: Earned Value & Earned Schedule Management

7.1 Earned Value Foundations: PV, EV, AC, and Variances 7.2 Traditional EV Performance Indices & Late-Project Quirks 7.3 Earned Schedule (ES) Theory, SV(t), and SPI(t) 7.4 Independent Schedule Forecasting & IEAC(t)

9 Chapter 8: Forensic Schedule Analysis & Delay Claims

8.1 Delay Classification, Criticality, and Contract Questions 8.2 RP 29R-03 Taxonomy, Data Validation, and Method Selection 8.3 TIA, Windowed Analysis, and Subtractive Models 8.4 Concurrency, Pacing, and Float: Technical Analysis Before Entitlement

10 Chapter 9: Executive Communication & Practical Scenario Applications

9.1 Official PSP Memo Writing Framework 9.2 Structured Technical Problem-Solving for PSP Scenarios 9.3 Current Exam Strategy and Core Calculation Review

1.10 Phase Relationships, Baseline Plan, Forecasts, and Risk/Recovery Planning

Key Takeaways Explain This Topic AI

Phase relationships translate the execution strategy into handoffs among design, procurement, construction, commissioning, and operations.

A baseline plan is the approved reference for measuring performance; a current forecast is the best present estimate of future outcomes.

Periodic forecasts incorporate actual status, remaining work, known changes, trends, and current risks without erasing baseline variance.

Risk and recovery planning identifies threats, triggers, responses, decision owners, and feasible actions before or after variance emerges.

Last updated: October 2026

1.10 Phase Relationships, Baseline Plan, Forecasts, and Risk/Recovery Planning

A project plan becomes actionable when major phases and deliverables are related in a feasible sequence. Engineering releases enable procurement and construction; installed systems enable testing; testing enables turnover; and turnover enables operation. These relationships may overlap, but the required information and acceptance interfaces must be explicit.

Sequence and phase relationships

Start with a phase map:

design maturity and release packages;
procurement inquiry, award, vendor data, fabrication, delivery, and acceptance;
enabling works and permanent construction;
system completion, pre-commissioning, commissioning, and performance testing;

training, documentation, turnover, and closeout.

Avoid a single finish-to-start chain when the strategy uses controlled overlap. For example, construction can begin from issued-for-construction packages before all design ends, but each work package needs a real release predecessor and change-risk treatment.

Baseline plan

The baseline is the approved reference against which performance is measured. Approval should follow scope, constructability, resource, risk, stakeholder, estimate, and schedule review. The baseline includes or references the scope, dates, budget, assumptions, calendars, logic, and acceptance criteria needed to understand the commitment.

Freeze and preserve the approved version. A late forecast is not repaired by moving baseline dates. Baseline revision requires authorized change under the project’s governance.

Periodic forecasts

A forecast answers, “Given actual progress and current information, what is now expected?” It should use:

actual starts and finishes;
realistic remaining durations;
current logic and calendars;
approved and pending changes shown under policy;
productivity and trend evidence;
procurement and decision status; and

current risks and mitigation.

The forecast can differ from both the baseline and a recovery target. Report all three clearly when relevant.

Date type Meaning
Baseline Approved performance reference
Current forecast Best present estimate from status and remaining plan
Target/recovery Desired result under a proposed corrective plan
Risk plan

The risk plan identifies threats and opportunities, owners, triggers, probability/impact, response actions, and schedule interfaces. Some responses avoid or reduce probability; others reduce impact, transfer risk, accept it with contingency, or exploit an opportunity.

Link material risks to activities or milestones so the team knows when exposure begins and when a response decision is due.

Recovery planning

Recovery planning begins when the forecast no longer meets required dates or when trend indicates that failure is likely. Generate alternatives such as:

resequencing preferential logic;
opening parallel workfronts;
adding qualified resources or shifts;
expediting information or material;
changing means and methods;
negotiating phased turnover; or

obtaining an authorized time change when supported.

Each alternative needs quantified time effect, cost, resources, safety/quality review, risk, and responsible commitments. A recovery bar chart produced by shortening durations without operational agreement is not a plan.

Scenario example

A vendor delivery threatens commissioning. The current forecast shows a twenty-day miss. One option expedites freight for eight days, another resequences pre-commissioning for twelve days, and a combined plan may recover more but creates trade congestion. The team models each option, checks resource and safety effects, chooses a funded plan, and tracks its assumptions. The original baseline remains visible while the approved recovery target and current forecast are reported separately.

Governance questions

Who approves the baseline and revisions?

Which pending changes appear in the working forecast?

What variance triggers a recovery schedule?

Who can authorize premium cost or additional shifts?

When is the risk model or contingency draw updated?

Planning is complete only when these decision rules accompany the technical sequence.

Applied review: connect the planning products

Sequencing translates execution strategy into relationships among phases, work packages, decisions, and interfaces. Review phase handoffs explicitly: design information enables procurement; procurement and access enable installation; systems completion enables testing; accepted testing enables turnover. Summary-level relationships help communicate the plan, but the detailed network must contain the actual drivers so that an update can explain movement.

The baseline records the approved scope, sequence, durations, resources, calendars, milestones, and assumptions at a defined point. A periodic forecast answers a different question: given actual status, current information, remaining work, and current risk, when are future events now expected? Preserve baseline history while updating the forecast. If an approved change modifies the baseline, retain authorization and a bridge from the previous reference.

Risk and recovery planning close the loop. Identify threats and opportunities, assign owners, model material effects, and define response triggers. A recovery plan should target the actual controlling paths with feasible changes to logic, methods, resources, calendars, or scope. Quantify time and cost consequences and test safety, quality, procurement, and approval effects. Merely replacing current dates with desired dates is not recovery. A strong exam answer keeps baseline, current status, forecast, risk response, and approved change as related but distinct control records.